It is happening slowly. I was originally more worried about MERS, but H5N1 looks to be evolving rapidly. The eventual mutation and evolution of the H5N1 virus, and others, to infect and freely pass between mammals, like humans, would have a mortality rate best described as a “civilization ender.” Yep! fearmongering, no?
Detection of dangerous avian influenza in wild mammals. USDA
Here some key facts from the report regarding human infection:
“Seven new human cases (5 in Cambodia, 1 in the United States and 1 in Vietnam).”
“Because of the potential for influenza viruses to rapidly evolve and the wide global prevalence of HPAI A(H5N1) viruses in wild birds and poultry outbreaks and following the identification and spread among dairy cattle in the United States, additional sporadic human infections are anticipated.”
“From January 2022 through April 25, 2024, 26 sporadic human cases of A(H5N1) were reported from eight countries, including 14 cases of severe or critical illness, and seven deaths, four cases of mild illness, and eight asymptomatic cases.”
7 deaths out of 26 infections is a 27% mortality rate… and that is from the old, unevolved and unmutated H5N1, the variant that isn’t any good at messing with humans. I wonder what the mortality rate of a virus adapted to humans would be…
Now some factors about the virus evolution:
“Genetic data have revealed that when some mammals, including humans, are infected with HPAI A(H5N1) virus, the virus may undergo intra-host evolution resulting in genetic changes that allow more efficient replication in the lower respiratory tract or extrapulmonary tissues.”
So… the more mammals that get it and carry it, the more likely it becomes that a major evolutionary mutation will occur…
And then, there’s those mortality rate numbers:
“Since 1997, a total of 909 sporadic human A(H5N1) cases have been reported from 23 countries, caused by different HPAI A(H5N1) virus clades [24,25], with a cumulative case fatality proportion of greater than 50%.”
Ah, so, probably not the paltry 27%… which itself is a civilization ender.
Distribution of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 and H5N1 in North America, 2021/2022. USGS
And it seems now, as of a new update, cats are susceptible, especially drinking raw milk on dairy farms:
“HPAI A(H5N1) infections in cats have been reported in the United States, Poland, South Korea, and France.
These cats demonstrated varying degrees of clinical manifestations, including respiratory and neurological signs, and some had fatal outcomes.
Infection is thought to have happened via exposure to infected birds or other animals. In late March and early April 2024, Texas reported detection of HPAI A(H5N1) in several cats from several dairy farms experiencing HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections in dairy cows, suggesting the virus spread to the cats either from affected dairy cows, raw cow milk, or from wild birds associated with those farms.”
This is the report updated April 26, 2024… Don’t panic, just be in the know and prepare accordingly…